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Gritstone bio, Inc. (GRTS)·Q4 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2023 delivered a clear beat: revenue of $10.38M vs consensus $3.89M and EPS of -$0.26 vs consensus -$0.34; both metrics beat expectations and mark a step-up from prior quarters .
  • Management maintained timing for preliminary Phase 2 GRANITE data in 1Q 2024 and highlighted ongoing NCI collaboration on SLATE-KRAS; these clinical milestones are near-term stock catalysts .
  • Infectious disease program CORAL-BARDA was delayed to Fall 2024 due to a switch to fully GMP-grade materials; workforce reduced ~40% in Feb 2024 to preserve capital, with cash and equivalents/marketable/restricted cash at $86.9M at year-end .
  • Cash runway disclosed “into Q3 2024” based on updated BARDA reimbursement timing; the funding trajectory and upcoming readouts will be critical for near-term sentiment .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Q4 revenue and EPS beat Street expectations, signaling stronger grant/collaboration recognition and tighter cost control vs prior quarters .
  • “As we rapidly approach the first randomized dataset from our flagship oncology program, GRANITE, we remain focused on leveraging our innovative technologies to drive transformative advances in oncology and infectious disease,” said CEO Andrew Allen, underscoring confidence in near-term oncology milestones .
  • Strategic progress in oncology: NCI-led Phase 1 combining SLATE-KRAS with TCR-T cleared IND; Phase 2/3 GRANITE randomized 100 patients with preliminary Phase 2 data guided for 1Q 2024 .

What Went Wrong

  • CORAL-BARDA Phase 2b delayed from 1Q 2024 to Fall 2024 to meet FDA requirements for fully GMP-grade materials, pushing out infectious disease validation/timing .
  • Workforce reduction of ~40% to cut costs following CORAL delay highlights funding sensitivity and the need to prioritize programs around GRANITE; operational bandwidth reduced in manufacturing and infectious disease .
  • Cash runway only into Q3 2024, raising financing risk if clinical readouts or external funding do not materialize on schedule .

Financial Results

Quarterly revenue and EPS vs prior year and prior quarters

MetricQ4 2022Q2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023
Revenue ($USD Millions)$4.26 $1.955 $1.565 $10.38
EPS ($USD)-$0.30 -$0.31 -$0.33 -$0.26

Q4 2023 vs consensus estimates

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$3.89 $10.38 +$6.49M (positive)
EPS ($USD)-$0.34 -$0.26 +$0.08 (positive)

Note: The company’s 3Q and 2Q reports provide quarterly operating line items, but Q4 press materials present full-year financial statements only; quarterly operating expense/margin figures for Q4 were not disclosed in the 8-K exhibit .

Segment/revenue composition (Full Year)

Revenue TypeFY 2022FY 2023
Collaboration and license revenues ($USD Millions)$9.269 $1.331
Grant revenues ($USD Millions)$10.676 $15.013
Total revenues ($USD Millions)$19.945 $16.344

KPIs

KPIQ2 2023Q3 2023Q4 2023
Cash, cash equivalents, marketable securities & restricted cash ($USD Millions)$122.3 $90.5 $86.9
Cash and cash equivalents ($USD Millions)$41.414 $29.539 $62.986
Noncurrent Debt ($USD Millions)$29.723 $29.868 $40.144
Total Assets ($USD Millions)$222.623 $187.217 $177.769

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
CORAL-BARDA Phase 2b start (COVID-19 samRNA)2024Initiation in 1Q 2024 Launch in Fall 2024; fully GMP-grade materials required Delayed
GRANITE Phase 2 preliminary efficacy readout1Q 2024Expected 1Q 2024 Expected 1Q 2024 (maintained) Maintained
Cash runway2024Not previously specifiedInto Q3 2024 (based on updated BARDA reimbursement timing) New disclosure
SLATE-KRAS + TCR-T (NCI) Phase 12024IND cleared Oct 2023; study upcoming “Expected to begin in the coming months” Initiation reaffirmed
Workforce/costs2024n/a~40% workforce reduction to preserve capital (Feb 2024) Cost reduction actions

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2–Q3 2023)Current Period (Q4 2023)Trend
GRANITE (personalized cancer vaccine)Enrollment completed; prelim Phase 2 efficacy guided for 1Q 2024; maintenance therapy in first-line MSS-CRC Preliminary Phase 2 data “rapidly accruing” and expected 1Q 2024; 100 randomized patients achieved Steady progress; readout imminent
SLATE-KRAS with TCR-T (NCI)IND cleared; NCI-led combination study planned NCI Phase 1 expected to begin “in the coming months” Advancing toward initiation
CORAL-BARDA (samRNA COVID-19)BARDA contract up to $433M; Phase 2b study preparations for 1Q 2024 start FDA-mandated fully GMP-grade materials; start delayed to Fall 2024 Timeline slip; regulatory alignment
Funding and runwayCash balance trending down as programs progress Cash/marketable/restricted cash $86.9M; runway into Q3 2024; workforce reduction ~40% Tighter liquidity; cost actions
AI/technology/EDGE platformAI-driven EDGE neoantigen prediction advancements presented at AACR Continued platform confidence embedded in oncology strategy Ongoing R&D platform narrative

Management Commentary

  • “As we rapidly approach the first randomized dataset from our flagship oncology program, GRANITE, we remain focused on leveraging our innovative technologies to drive transformative advances in oncology and infectious disease.” — Andrew Allen, M.D., Ph.D., President & CEO .
  • “Preliminary Phase 2 data from the Phase 2/3 study of GRANITE in metastatic MSS-CRC are rapidly accruing and remain expected this quarter. Positive signal in this metastatic context would likely unlock enormous opportunity in both adjuvant and metastatic solid tumors.” — Andrew Allen .
  • “The ongoing advancement of our CORAL program positions our infectious disease approach…as a leading potential next-generation vaccine platform for COVID-19 and beyond.” — Andrew Allen (Q3 commentary) .

Q&A Highlights

  • A Q4 2023 earnings call transcript was not available in our document corpus; no Q&A details could be sourced. Management’s prepared remarks emphasize confidence in GRANITE near-term readout, regulatory-driven adjustments to CORAL-BARDA timelines, and capital-preservation measures .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable via our tool for GRTS at the time of analysis; therefore, we reference third-party consensus figures for Q4 2023: revenue $3.89M and EPS -$0.34, which were both beaten by actuals (revenue $10.38M; EPS -$0.26) .
  • Post-beat, models may need to adjust upward for near-term revenue recognition from grants/collaborations and incorporate the operational cost actions, while also pushing CORAL-BARDA timelines to Fall 2024 .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 showed a significant top-line and EPS beat versus consensus; strength likely from grant/collaboration recognition and disciplined opex, which could support near-term sentiment ahead of GRANITE data .
  • The GRANITE preliminary Phase 2 readout in 1Q 2024 is the pivotal catalyst; a positive signal in MSS-CRC could be thesis-changing and broaden oncology optionality .
  • CORAL-BARDA timeline slippage to Fall 2024 introduces execution risk in infectious disease; monitor regulatory progress and study launch readiness .
  • Liquidity and runway into Q3 2024, combined with a ~40% workforce reduction, suggest a narrowed near-term focus; funding events or partnerships may be necessary absent rapid clinical de-risking .
  • The NCI collaboration on SLATE-KRAS/TCR-T is a notable validation vector; near-term initiation could add to oncology momentum if GRANITE data are supportive .
  • For trading, the pre-readout period may see speculative accumulation; post-readout volatility will hinge on the magnitude and clarity of efficacy signals in MSS-CRC .
  • Medium term, thesis centers on oncology efficacy validation (GRANITE/SLATE) and platform durability, with infectious disease timelines extended; balance sheet discipline remains essential .